After more than four years of publishing The Special Situations Report for free and two years after our acquisition of this publication from David in August 2024, we have decided to convert the weekly report into a paid service starting next week.
We didn’t take this decision lightly. We put in a lot of effort into aggregating this data and verifying it every week. We also add a lot of context to the data through a series of spotlight ideas and articles we publish on InsideArbitrage. You can check out a sample of one of our monthly special situations newsletters here.
Model Portfolio and Watchlist
The service on InsideArbitrage also includes a model portfolio that updates in real time and a watchlist. I purchase every position that is added to the model portfolio for my personal portfolio and often with the same position size (sometimes larger but rarely a smaller position).
Past performance is not indicative of future returns, especially in the kind of market we are currently experiencing. Year-to-date, the model portfolio has generated gains of 54.70% while being broadly diversified (we usually have 25 to 30 positions) and without being over-indexed to AI names.
For full transparency, every position in the model portfolio links back to a specific writeup that triggered the addition of the idea to the portfolio.
Three Plans
We have three plans on InsideArbitrage that you can check out here.
Only the Premium plan is offered if you sign up directly from Substack. If you wish to sign up for either the Plus (mostly content and some tools) or the Professional plan (access for a team of four users and proprietary data/tools), you can do so directly on InsideArbitrage.
Instead of this weekly Special Situations Report on Sunday, on InsideArbitrage we have our popular Event-Driven Monitor that is published every morning before the market opens. You will not have to verify the data like you would with an AI tool because all data is verified by humans and often by multiple people in the team.
This is one of the reasons multiple brokers use our data and so do some of the largest hedge funds in the world.
Our weekly Merger Arbitrage Mondays article will cover everything that happened in M&A including announced deals, updates as the deal progresses through various milestones (shareholder vote, antitrust review, etc.) as well as deal rumors.
Our weekly Insider Weekends article will cover one insider purchase or sale from the prior week that we found interesting. I moved last week’s Insider Weekends article outside the paywall so you can check it out here.
I am barely scratching the surface of all the information we provide on InsideArbitrage.
A 20% Discount For Signing Up Directly
I know our Premium plan is sometimes expensive for individual investors who are not doing this professionally and don’t need all the tools and custom screens that plan comes with. This is why we introduced the lower priced Plus plan that at the annual subscription rate of $480 works out to just $40 a month.
Signing up directly on InsideArbitrage saves us a lot of time and fees and so I’ll include a 20% discount on both our Plus and Premium plans if you decide to sign up here.
Use the promo code TWENTY to get this 20% discount. It is only valid until the end of this month.
You can cancel anytime directly from our website. No calls or emails required. Receive a prorated refund credited to your card after a minimum subscription period of one month.
If you found value in this weekly Special Situations Report, please consider supporting our work by subscribing to our paid service either directly through Inside Arbitrage or here on Substack.
Now back to regular programming.
Table of Contents:
Update on Developing M&A
Update on Shareholder Activism
Update on Other Special Situations
Announced M&A
C-Suite Sudden Departures
Powered by InsideArbitrage.
Update on Developing M&A
Aurora Cannabis (ACB): Recommended that shareholders reject the hostile offer by Curaleaf (CURLF) to acquire the company for the total implied consideration of $5 per Aurora share. In August, Curaleaf had offered $4 per share, which was increased to $5 after the previous offer was rejected as well. (Press Release)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Starbucks (SBUX) denied that it is considering acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill. FT reported last week that Starbucks had explored a takeover of Chipotle and had worked with advisers in recent months on a takeover proposal. (CNBC)
Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP): Piper Sandler (PIPR) and Perella have abandoned merger talks. The advisory firms had been discussing an all-stock merger but could not agree on key financial and personnel matters. In recent weeks, the two firms tried to hash out lock-up agreements to retain dozens of Perella Weinberg’s top bankers at the combined entity. However, a critical mass of Perella Weinberg’s top talent did not join the deal, undermining Piper’s confidence. Last month, WSJ reported that the two companies were in talks to combine. (FT)
SkyAI (SKYA): The Special Committee rejected Forward Industries’ (FWDI) latest unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal. The Board determined that Forward’s latest proposal at an exchange ratio of 0.306 shares of common stock in FWDI per SkyAI share, with no certainty of timing or value, undervalues SkyAI. (Press Release)
UBS (UBS): Is working on possible scenarios including shifting its headquarters, or a merger with another bank, if Switzerland introduces new banking rules it deems excessively strict. A group inside the bank is considering various options, which include drawing up a list of smaller banks in the United States that UBS could potentially buy, and the prospect of the bank being taken over itself. There are no active talks underway. (Reuters)
Rumors
No new rumors were announced last week.
To access all rumors, a history of updates and the eventual outcomes, check out our Deals in the Works tool that includes data on over 9 years of developing M&A situations:
Update on Shareholder Activism
Ethan Allen (ETD): DGB Investments said it is extending an invitation to Ethan Allen CEO and Chairman Farooq Kathwari to take up the role of board chairman emeritus to ensure a smooth transition period should the activist succeed in its proxy challenge to replace the CEO. DGB, which owns about 5% of Ethan Allen, wants to recognize Kathwari’s contribution to the company. Chairman emeritus would be a non-board advisory role. DGB continues to seek to replace the entire five-person board, including Kathwari. (Press Release)
Novavax (NVAX): Shah Capital announced that it has voluntarily withdrawn its registration as an investment adviser. Shah Capital no longer holds the shares of Novavax with the purpose of influencing control. The activist has restructured its investment management activities to create a family office. (13D Filing)
SkyAI (SKYA): Bastion Trading expressed serious concerns regarding the company’s tender offer, including the lack of transparency surrounding the disposal of about 70% of its Solana (SOL) holdings, the legitimacy of the incumbent board, and the fairness of the proposed tender offer terms. Bastion accused SkyAI of selling SOL holdings without adequate disclosure and urged board changes. It proposed improving the tender offer by raising the price from $3 to at least $3.50 per share or eligible warrant, removing the $100 SOL price and 50% minimum participation conditions, and allowing up to 100% of pre-funded warrants to be tendered. (Press Release)
Xponential Fitness (XPOF): Adopted a limited-duration stockholder rights plan. Under the Rights Plan, the rights generally become exercisable only if a person or group acquires beneficial ownership of 19.90% or more of the Class A shares. Voss Capital and Kanen Wealth Management, with 18.20% and 4% stakes in the company, respectively, were pushing the company to pursue strategic alternatives. (Press Release)
Our comprehensive Activists Tool includes current activist campaigns and all updates as the campaigns unfold: https://www.insidearbitrage.com/shareholder-activists-tool
Update on Other Special Situations
Medtronic / MiniMed (MDT / MMED): Medtronic completed the split-off of its diabetes business after an oversubscribed exchange offer. It exchanged all 252.81 million MiniMed shares it owned for 55.03 million MDT shares, fully exiting its ownership in MiniMed.
The final exchange ratio was 4.5939 MMED shares for each MDT share accepted, with a final proration factor of 18.289133%, meaning only about 18.30% of eligible tendered MDT shares were accepted. Odd-lot holders tendering fewer than 100 shares were exempt from proration. (Press Release)
(For background on the Medtronic–MiniMed split-off and how the transaction was structured, check out our September mid-month update.)
National Fuel Gas (NFG): National Fuel Gas approved a tax-free spin-off of its Integrated Upstream and Gathering business, targeted for H2 2027. NFG shareholders are expected to receive SpinCo shares, while National Fuel may retain up to 19.9% of SpinCo (Filing).
Flex (FLEX): Flex completed its acquisition of EPC Power, adding grid-forming and power-conversion technology to its Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment. The segment is still planned to be separated as Axiom Solutions International in Q1 2027. (Press Release)
Flex said Axiom expanded its modular AI data center portfolio with integrated power, compute, and cooling systems. (Press Release)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Johnson & Johnson said it is leaning toward spinning off its DePuy Synthes orthopaedics business rather than selling it, believing a spin-off could create greater long-term shareholder value. The separation remains on track for mid-2027. The update comes as J&J’s MedTech division reported just 2.5% sales growth in Q3 2026, trailing its pharmaceutical business. (Bloomberg)
International Paper (IP): International Paper is in early talks with potential bidders for its EMEA Packaging business after unsolicited approaches while continuing the planned spin-off in parallel. Reuters reported Lone Star and Atlas Holdings are exploring separate bids that could value the business at under $6 billion. (Reuters)
You can view the full list of upcoming spinoffs including each update since the announcement of the spinoff in our Upcoming Spinoffs List.
Announced M&A
Target / Acquirer – Approximate Transaction Enterprise Value, Expected Closing
Communication Services
Bumble (BMBL) / Ithaca Holdings - $1.3 bn, H1 2027 (Press Release, Merger Agreement)
Consumer Cyclical
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) / Motown Acquisition, an entity owned by Penske Corp and Mitsui - $16.3 bn, Q1 2027 (Press Release, Merger Agreement)
Technology
CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) / GTCR and Elliott - $6.1 bn, Q1 2027 (Press Release, Merger Agreement)
Varonis Systems (VRNS) / Proofpoint - $6.3 bn, H1 2027 (Press Release, Merger Agreement)
Check out a list of nearly 80 active mergers & acquisitions in our Merger Arbitrage Tool. Includes the ability to track specific deals, email alerts for new deals, real-time spreads, annualized returns, all merger updates and spread history charts.
Sudden Departures
“Sudden Departures” highlights executive exits announced with short notice, where the executive is expected to leave within 30 days.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Chief Financial Officer David Weigand departs effective October 14, 2026. The change follows a prolonged CFO search after prior governance and internal-control concerns. Super Micro is also facing regulatory scrutiny related to an alleged $2.5 billion AI-server export scheme involving individuals linked to the company, although Super Micro itself has not been charged. (Filing) (Reuters)
Bausch + Lomb (BLCO): Chief Executive Officer Brent Saunders steps down effective October 12, 2026. (Filing)
Sinda (SIND): Chief Financial Officer Luis Barreto departs effective October 13, 2026. (Filing)
SVRN (SVRN): Co-Chief Executive Officer Robert Perri resigns effective October 7, 2026. (Filing)
Atlas Trinity Tech (ATTT): Chief Executive Officer Tim Hoi Ching steps down effective October 15, 2026. (Press Release)
Erasca (ERAS): Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Chetwyn is terminated effective November 2, 2026, as part of a leadership realignment to streamline reporting. (Filing)
Charter Communications (CHTR): Chief Commercial Officer Adam Ray departs effective October 12, 2026, in a termination without cause. (Filing)
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): Chief Technology Officer James Bahrenburg steps down effective October 12, 2026. (Filing)
Myomo (MYO): Chief Commercial Officer Micah Mitchell transitions out of the role effective October 12, 2026. (Press Release)
Our C-Suite Transitions tool includes over 10,000 management changes including appointments, departures and sudden departures.
If you enjoyed reading this Report, please do me the huge favor of pressing the “Like” button or sharing it with other investors interested in special situations.
The content herein is informational and should not be relied upon as fact. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the content or data provided in this article. Do your own diligence before making any investment decisions.



