The last time in M&A I thought "f it. If I'm wrong about this then I fire myself as having any judgment. All in." was with TWTR's sale. If Elon could successfully violate that contract then I'm not picking up another DMA to analyze.
2.0: Gamestop isn't buying eBay this year. Nope. Noper. Nopest. They aren't. They aren't for all the reasons -- smaller companies struggle to buy bigger ones. The target doesn't want to sell. The buyer hasn't approached this nearly impossible task logically. Heck they didn't even ask nicely before going public.
Agreed Chris! And that is why I was long Twitter for that wide spread where people not familiar with DMAs assumed that Elon could just pay the $1 billion break fee and walk away.
The simple answer for Gamestop could be that the people participating in this bet are just as enamored by Cohen as they were by Musk and that tilts the odds in your favor.
The last time in M&A I thought "f it. If I'm wrong about this then I fire myself as having any judgment. All in." was with TWTR's sale. If Elon could successfully violate that contract then I'm not picking up another DMA to analyze.
2.0: Gamestop isn't buying eBay this year. Nope. Noper. Nopest. They aren't. They aren't for all the reasons -- smaller companies struggle to buy bigger ones. The target doesn't want to sell. The buyer hasn't approached this nearly impossible task logically. Heck they didn't even ask nicely before going public.
As with TWTR, I'm mostly unsettled by why the market is handing this to me. Why was this priced as much as ~30% at one point? I'm assertively taking the "no" side but surprised that I could do so at great prices and (by modest PA standards) in size? https://kalshi.com/markets/kxacqannounceebay/will-gamestop-acquire-ebay/kxacqannounceebay-27jan01
Agreed Chris! And that is why I was long Twitter for that wide spread where people not familiar with DMAs assumed that Elon could just pay the $1 billion break fee and walk away.
The simple answer for Gamestop could be that the people participating in this bet are just as enamored by Cohen as they were by Musk and that tilts the odds in your favor.